The San Jose Sharks have made the playoffs in 15 of the past 16 seasons, but
after blowing a three-games-to-none lead against the Los Angeles Kings in Round
One, disappointment reigns in Northern California once again.
Ultra Boost Adidas Prezzi . Off-Season Game
Plan looks at a Sharks team that has promised changes, but might be better off
sticking with the core of a team that, even without a Stanley Cup win, has
consistently been among the leagues best. Understandably, the Sharks are
disappointed. No team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations likes to get
bounced in the first round, but there should be some mitigating factors
considered. First and foremost, the Sharks have to consider that they had
outscored the Kings 17-8 in the first three games of the playoffs and needed one
more win to oust the team that is now favoured to win the Stanley Cup. That
should indicate that, while improvement is necessary, the Sharks should realize
that they arent far off. They were the leagues third-best possession team and
that isnt a team that should be blown up just because the Western Conference
Murderers Row tripped them up once again. This is relevant because rumours have
surfaced that long-time Sharks Patrick Marleau or Joe Thornton could be asked to
waive no-movement clauses. Theres no sure answer to say that the Sharks will be
just fine if they keep this core together, but its harder to see this team as a
Cup contender in the next year or two if they move out players like Thornton or
Marleau. Value always depends on what the return is, but those wont be easy
holes to fill if that is the direction in which the Sharks are headed. Until
that decision becomes clear, this team will be one of the most compelling to
watch this offseason. Such is the nature of a contending team that is getting
impatient with its inability to get over the hump. The TSN.ca Rating is an
efficiency rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists --
weighted for strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- Corsi, adjusted for
zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates, hits, blocked
shots, penalty differential and faceoffs. Generally, a replacement-level player
is around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be around 70,
stars will be over 80 and MVP candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby
finished at the top of the 2013-2014 regular season ratings at 87.12. Salary cap
information all comes from the indispensable
www.capgeek.com. CF% = Corsi
percentage (ie. percentage of 5-on-5 shot attempts), via
www.extraskater.com.
GM/COACHDoug Wilson/Todd McLellan Returning Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS
CF% Cap Hit Joe Pavelski 81.92 82 41 38 79 56.4% $6.0M Patrick Marleau 78.15 82
33 37 70 53.1% $6.667M Logan Couture 78.60 65 23 31 54 53.5% $6.0M Raffi Torres
77.70 5 3 2 5 52.9% $2.0M Joe Thornton 76.10 82 11 65 76 58.3% $6.75M
Tomas Hertl 74.29 37 15 10 25 55.8% $925K Martin Havlat 66.04 48 12 10 22 50.3%
$5.0M Matt Nieto 65.52 66 10 14 24 51.9% $759K Tyler Kennedy 60.02 67 4 13 17
52.2% $2.35M Andrew Desjardins 58.82 81 3 14 17 50.0% $750K Adam Burish 54.73 15
0 0 0 52.8% $1.85M Free Agent Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14
Cap Hit Tommy Wingels 68.78 77 16 22 38 52.8% RFA $775K James Sheppard 64.77 67
4 16 20 52.5% RFA $830K Mike Brown 56.93 56 2 3 5 46.1% UFA $737K Coming off a
career-best season, fueled in part by a career-high 18.2% shooting percentage,
Joe Pavelski plays in all situations, hasnt missed a game in three seasons and,
over the course of those three seasons, ranks sixth in goals. Hes a very good
two-way player but, prior to last season, had scored more than 0.75 points per
game (a 60-point pace)twice in seven seasons. Over the past four seasons, there
are two players under the age of 24 with more goals than Logan Coutures 107--
Steven Stamkos (159) and John Tavares (112). Thats pretty good company. Last
season, Coutures goal-scoring was down, thanks to a career-low 9.9% shooting
percentage, but 53 points in 65 games represented a career-best rate of 0.82
points per game, and that came while facing the hardest competition with the
highest percentage of defensive zone starts of his career. Having played nearly
1400 (regular season plus playoff) games for the Sharks, Patrick Marleau gets
branded, at times, as the face of the franchises disappointment, but hes the
fourth-leading goal scorer in the league over the past six seasons, giving
little indication that hes slowing down, even as he enters his mid-30s. While
playoff shortcomings get pinned to Marleau, since 2002, hes scored 55 goals in
125 postseason games, which leaves him with the second-best goals-per-game among
players to play at least 100 playoff games in that time. He wont be able to do
this forever, but Marleau has been extremely durable, having not missed a game
in the past five years. He will slow down at some point, but hes hardly the
reason the Sharks havent yet won a Stanley Cup. Raffi Torress per-game
contributions were way out of line last season, but thats a small sample at
work. Hes a hard-hitting third-line winger who can chip in offensively when hes
not hurt, or suspended. With Teemu Selanne retiring, Jaromir Jagr is the only
active player with more points than Joe Thornton, who has accrued 1194 in 1207
career games, and while hes managed a modest 18 goals over the past two seasons,
Thornton still has 116 points in that span, tied with Tyler Seguin and
Jonathan Toews for 12th in the league. Even so, that may not be enough. The
34-year-old could be available for trade, though thats a complicated matter
since he has a no-movement clause tied to the three years remaining on his
contract. Like Marleau, Thornton takes the heat for San Joses playoff stumbles
but, even after scoring three points in seven games this season, he still has 82
points in 97 playoff games since joining the Sharks. If he is made available,
and is amenable to the right move, there ought to be a long line of suitors.
Tomas Hertl burst into the NHL with six goals in his first three games, but his
production was slowing down even before he suffered a knee injury that kept him
out for nearly four months, and he finished with seven points in his last 20
games after scoring 18 points in 17 games to start the year. However, Hertl has
size, speed, skill and is just 20-years-old. Hes due to have some percentages
fall, but can also play a bigger role, which could help offset that anticipated
regression. 33-year-old Martin Havlat has had a rough ride in San Jose, scoring
27 goals and 67 points in 127 games over the past three seasons, and his
points-per-game over the last two were under half-a-point-per-game for the first
time in his career. Sharks GM Doug Wilson has said that Havlat wont be back,
which would presumably mean a buyout of the final year of his contract. A speedy
winger who earned a bigger role and produced more as his rookie season went on,
Matt Nieto figures to have a top-nine, possibly top-six, role next season. Hes
scored enough before arriving in the NHL to believe that there is more
production possible as he matures. Tyler Kennedys play has dipped over the past
couple seasons, when hes no longer had Jordan Staal as his centre like he did
for his best years in Pittsburgh, and was a non-factor down the stretch for the
Sharks, going without a goal in his last 25 games and managing two assists in
his last 23 games. The proverbial great team guy, Adam Burish has nonetheless
put up one goal and three points in 61 games, while getting beat up in puck
possession terms, with the Sharks over the past two seasons. Can a healthy
Burish even handle a regular role on the fourth line? Theres two years and
$3.7-million left on his deal that makes that a question worth answering.
Hard-hitting winger Tommy Wingels had a breakout season last year, getting the
opportunity to play a regular role with skilled players. He was one of 25
forwards to record at least 200 hits last season and, among those with more hits
than Wingels 210, only David Backes, Milan Lucic and Brandon Dubinsky had more
than Wingels 38 points. Its been a long strange trip for James Sheppard, the
ninth overall pick by Minnesota in 2006, who nearly lost his career after an ATV
accident, but he has worked his way back into a regular NHL role, playing
top-nine minutes down the stretch for the Sharks as he finished the year with 11
points in his last 19 games before delivering six points in seven playoff games.
He only has 16 goals in 323 career games, but if Sheppard is able to handle a
third-line centre role, thats a remarkable recovery. If the Sharks are prepared
to push forward, bringing in at least one scoring winger would make sense. With
Brent Burns moving back to defence and Martin Havlat on the way out, maybe a
free agent like Ales Hemsky, Mike Cammalleri or Jarome Iginla would have some
appeal. Returning Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Brent Burns
75.46 69 22 26 48 57.1% $5.76M Marc-Edouard Vlasic 69.92 81 5 19 24 58.2% $4.25M
Matt Irwin 66.24 62 2 17 19 50.2% $1.0M Justin Braun 65.60 82 4 13 17 54.2%
$1.25M Brad Stuart 62.12 61 3 8 11 51.4% $3.6M Free Agent Defence Player Rating
GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Jason Demers 69.36 75 5 29 34 54.9% RFA $1.5M
Dan Boyle 64.96 75 12 24 36 53.0% UFA $6.667M Scott Hannan 62.78 56 3 9 12 49.9%
UFA $1.0M After a productive run at right wing, where he scored 68 points (31 G,
37 A in 92 GP) over the past season-and-a-half, Brent Burns is moving back to
defence, where he had shown plenty of promise before the move to Thorntons wing.
This becomes a value judgement. Would the Sharks prefer to have Burns playing on
the top defence pair and logging 23-24 minutes a night, or would they like a
potential 30-goal power forward who plays 17 minutes per game? Both are
desirable commodities, but the Sharks might find it easier to add a scoring
winger than they would a top pair defenceman, even if the scoring winger may not
come in a 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame. In eight NHL seasons, Marc-Edouard Vlasic
has missed more than two games in a season just once and finds himself in very
good company in terms of puck possession for big-minute defencemen and that is
despite consistently starting more shifts in the defensive zone, even on a
strong team like the Sharks. Last seasons 24 points was the highest season total
for Vlasic since 2009, yet hes still very valuable in his defensive role. There
arent many defence-only defencemen that hold a lot of value, but Vlasic is one.
Matt Irwin hasnt been able to secure his spot on the Sharks blueline, still
getting scratched at times, but hes been effective enough through his first 100
NHL games, although his performance wasnt as strong last season. He has a bomb
from the point and quite reasonably priced if he plays regularly. Playing
increasingly difficult minutes, Justin Braun has matured into a relaible
top-four defenceman, playing a career-high 20:59 per game last season. Not a lot
of frills to his game, but Braun blocks shots (four behind Vlasic for the team
lead) and has spent time paired with Vlasic in a shutdown role. Its been a long
time (been a long time, been a long, lonely, lonely, lonely, lonely, lonely
time) since Brad Stuart was drafted third overall in 1998 by the Sharks, and hes
used in a much different, defence-first, role. Like many physical defensive
defencemen, hes lost a step, and played a career-low 19:10 per game last season,
but Stuart is certainly capable of filling a regular role in the top six.
Jason Demers had something of a breakout year in 2013-2014, playing a
career-high 19:29 per game and tallying a career-best 34 points as the Sharks
most effective offensive contributor from the blueline. As such, hes likely due
for a nice raise as a restricted free agent this summer. Returning Goaltender
Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Cap Hit Antti Niemi 63.95 64 39 17 7 2.39 .913
$3.8M Free Agent Goaltender Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Class 13-14 Cap Hit
Alex Stalock 74.34 24 12 5 2 1.87 .932 UFA $625K Antti Niemis play has been up
and down over his five-plus NHL seasons, though last season likely counts as the
worst to date, with a below-average .913 save percentage and an even-strength
save percentage that ranked 22nd out of 24 goaltenders to play at least 2000
5-on-5 minutes in 2013-2014. Given how the season ended, it wouldnt be a shock
to see the Sharks try to make a change, but they could also play out the final
year of Niemis current deal. With Alex Stalock headed for free agency, the
Sharks may want to grab better than a basic backup; ideally, someone that could
step in to handle the job if Niemi doesnt bounce back next season. Top Prospects
Player Pos. Team/League Stats Mirco Mueller D Everett (WHL) 5-22-27, +1, 60 GP
Chris Tierney C London (OHL) 40-49-89, +44, 67 GP Freddie Hamilton RW Worcester
(AHL) 22-21-43, -14, 64 GP Konrad Abeltshauser D Worcester (AHL) 6-15-21, even,
57 GP Gabryel Boudreau LW Baie-Comeau (QMJHL) 16-19-35, +8, 67 GP Matt Tennyson
D Worcester (AHL) 7-14-21, -25, 54 GP Taylor Doherty D Worcester (AHL) 4-11-15,
-6, 69 GP Dylan DeMelo D Worcester (AHL) 2-22-24, -17, 68 GP Sean Kuraly C Miami
(NCHC) 12-17-29, -1, 38 GP Ryan Carpenter C Bowling Green (WCHA) 8-8-16, +3, 15
GP Daniil Tarasov RW Worcester (AHL) 17-14-31, +2, 47 GP Last summers
first-round pick, Mirco Muellers point production dipped ever-so-slightly from
his first WHL season, but hes a highly-regarded puck-mover. Can the Swiss
rearguard make the jump next year, or will he be better served with another year
in the Dub? A second-round pick in 2012, Chris Tierney has increased his
offensive output at the junior level. Starting with the 2013 playoffs, he has
127 points ( 52 G, 75 A) in 97 games. Theres no rush to get him to San Jose, but
Tierney is a good one to have in the pipeline. Freddie Hamilton, a fifth-round
pick in 2010, made a nice progression in his second pro season and earned 11
games with San Jose. He struggled in the NHL, but the 22-year-old is available
if the Sharks need a call-up. A sixth-round pick in 2010, 6-foot-5
Konrad Abeltshauser made a nice transition to the AHL and could push quickly in
an organization that, aside from Mueller, doesnt have great blueline prospects.
Taken in the second round last year, Gabryel Boudreau saw his scoring dive from
63 points in 2012-2013 to 35 points last season. Thats not very encouraging, but
is also an indication that hes due for further development before he gets his
turn at pro hockey. With 50 points in 121 AHL games over two-plus seasons,
Matt Tennyson has shown the puck skills to warrant consideration for promotion,
but the free agent out of Western Michigan hasnt been reliable enough
defensively. A 6-foot-8 defenceman with three-plus years of AHL exerperience,
Taylor Doherty isnt going to score his way to the Show, and has yet to see
action in an NHL game, but hes 6-foot-8 and can move well for that size, so the
2009 second-round pick shouldnt be discounted yet. Drafted in the sixth round in
2011, Dylan DeMelo has worked his way into position to contend with other San
Jose blueline prospects. At the same time, hes 21-years-old and could use
further development. Picked in the fifth round in 2011, Sean Kuraly is a winger
with good size who had a nice bump in production as a sophomore, finishing third
on his team in scoring. With another year or two of development, he could turn
into a solid two-way contributor. Signed out of Bowling Green after scoring 16
points in 15 during an injury-plauged junior season, Ryan Carpenter struggled in
his first taste of pro hockey, registering a couple of assists in 11 games with
Worcester, but hes a low-risk signing that could be interesting based on his
improving numbers in college. Daniil Tarasov has worked his way up from the USHL
and has 31 goals and 59 points in 90 AHL games over the past couple seasons.
Sharks advanced stats and player usage chart from Extra Skater DRAFT20th - Josh
Ho-Sang, Roland McKeown, David Pastrnak FREE AGENCYAccording to
www.capgeek.com,
the Sharks have approximately $58.7M committed to the 2014-2015 salary cap for
17 players. Check out my possible Sharks lineup for next season on Cap Geek
here. Needs: One top six forward, depth forwards, one top four defenceman,
backup goaltender.What I said the Sharks needed last year: One top six forward,
two defencemen.They added: Tomas Hertl, Matt Nieto, Tyler Kennedy, Scott Hannan.
TRADE MARKETPatrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Tyler Kennedy, Matt Irwin,
Antti Niemi. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and
followed on Twitter at
http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out
TSN Fantasy on Facebook.
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